Serge
Where to begin? The 2011 deadline deal for Kendrick Perkins really freed up Serge to become who we know and love: a master shot swatting, rim running Air Congo that more than covered up for poor perimeter defense. A 3x NBA block champion with the ability to switch on guards and forwards holds a lot of value in the current league and was hard to part with. A master mid-range shooter, a burgeoning three point shot (45% in the playoffs!), the aforementioned ability to guard numerous positions capable of blocking 3 shots a game made him a perfect fit for the Thunder. So what went wrong?Well, certain nights this season it became painfully obvious that Serge was mailing it in. Air Congo was grounded for much of the season, his block average was almost 100 blocks less than the Lockout shortened 2011-2012 season and was less per game than any season since his rookie year. Serge was disgruntled about his lack of shots, implying that to be the reason for his decrease in defensive impact. And this is before looking at the future of Ibaka in Thunder blue.
When you do look at the future, the trade makes perfect sense. Ibaka would be a free agent this time next year and the souring atmosphere would ultimately result in him getting paid (in OKC or elsewhere likely) more than he's likely to be worth over the life of the contract. Serge would be "28" (#ForeignBirthCertificates) on his new 4 year deal with a game predicated on skying around the floor blocking shots. Let me read some #s: 3.7, 3.0, 2.7, 2.4, 1.9. That's his per game average over the last 5 years. A trend that says a lot. Now, his three point #s have steadily increased most years and are a good sign. But being on the hook for 30-35% of your salary cap for a declining player doesn't seem wise to me.
So from a Thunder perspective, if the price is right, you move. And boy did they!
Victor Oladipo
If Sam Presti could draw up a guard that would fit in with the Thunder closing lineup (type of player, personality, build, age), Oladipo is an approximate replica of that player. A defense first, hard working, selfless player with the ability to slash and create (mostly effectively), here's the guy. At 6'4 with a 6'10 wingspan, shades of a smaller Kawhi Leonard come to mind *dreams of extended arms into passing lanes*. While he's an average three point shooter at best, he's an offensive improvement to arguably everything that Roberson does with a fantastic defensive game.
Domantas Sabonis
Here's the real X-factor in the trade. With Hall of Fame pedigree, a 6'10 frame and a productive 2 year track record at Gonzaga, the lefty Lithuanian appears to be everything we hoped Mitch McGary would be but in a more reliable player.A high motor, an efficient game and a high basketball IQ are things to be excited about. After reading through his Draft Express profile, it's easy to get excited to think about how he could fit in next to Steven Adams on the front line. The trick for him depends on how his shot develops at the next level. If he can build some semblance of the mid range game that Ibaka has, this guy will be an incredible asset and could take this trade to the next level. Thunder scouts had been rumored to be at tons of Sabonis games all year but rival scouts couldn't figure out how OKC could nab him in the lottery. I'm sure Presti was pretty excited about him being available at 11 (and 4 years of him on a rookie deal to boot).
Ersan Ilyasova The piece I've dug into the least, the Turkish Hammer (per Enes Kanter) appears to be a viable candidate for the starting lineup. A better three point shooter than Ibaka (40% this year in Orlando,
36% in Detroit last year) but more like his Turkish brethren on the defensive end. Berry Tramel reported he nearly led the league in charges last year, so there's something happening on the defensive end, but if Adams can't cover power forwards, this trade doesn't happen. Likely to be best fit next to Adams (for defensive purposes), maybe Ilyasova can be hid enough on a nightly basis to enjoy his floor spacing. I liken him to the Kevin Martin piece of the Harden trade: a one year rental meant to bridge the development of a player behind him (Reggie Jackson behind Martin, Sabonis behind Ilyasova).
What the Trade Means for the Thunder
This is the interesting thing to think about and I think there are multiple layers to this onion-
Durant Sweepstakes:Durant and Ibaka weren't close friends, so no harm done there. But does the intrigue over what Oladipo in a lineup intrigue KD to the point that he just wants to know what that would look like?
Financial: Short term, this would put an extra ~$3m on the books (plus luxury tax). But assuming they don't resign Ilyasova next summer ( unrestricted free agent in 2017), Sabonis will be locked into a rookie deal for 4 years, and they will have Oladipo as a restricted free agent (coming off of his rookie deal and onto 2nd contract) to be compared to Serge Ibaka as unrestricted free agent entering his third contract. Even at a max level, Oladipo's money most likely won't compare to what Serge will bring (based off years of service). The Thunder will likely have Oladipo and Sabonis for cheaper than they would have a declining Serge on his third deal.
Team Building: For a team that almost exclusively builds through the draft and trades, they just added a new layer of talent on the wing and in the post. The resigning of Dion Waiters now becomes a more fiscally responsible process (not HAVING to overspend) but can be retained at a fair price (not likely, Sixers and Kings already linked to him). But the key is that the Thunder have the ability to match if they see fit as Waiters is a RFA. It just seems more prudent to pay Oladipo than it does Waiters, and while Waiters is good friends with KD, Oladipo's work ethic and personality appear to be a phenomenal fit in OKC.
Starting Power Forward: Gosh, this is the only question I can't answer. Kanter? Possible. But who is offense off the bench? Play Oladipo as 6th man? Durant at the 4? Likely on the offensive end you would have Roberson playing some 4 like he did in the Warriors series, but that's still grinding KD on some bigs defensively. The best idea to me is Ilyasova but mostly switching in other players to the spot (Durant, Kanter, Roberson). But who's in the closing lineup? Gosh I don't know.
Long Term: Really this is a plan A, plan B situation. Presti alluded in a recent podcast with Woj that the trick for the front office has been to put different talent around the stars as their game evolves. So the evolution of the stars is definitely playing a factor in the types of players the Thunder acquires. As the NBA has evolved into a small ball league, the Thunder went from a big heavy Perk, Serge front court to a more agile, shooting Serge and a lighter footed Adams.Plan A seems to be keep Russ and KD, resign Adams and Oladipo, and develop Sabonis at the 4. Plan B is likely keep whichever of the superstars you can, but developing the lottery picks on the roster: Cam Payne, Oladipo, Adams, Sabonis, Kanter and potentially Waiters and develop another team of players that can fend for themselves in the wild Western Conference.
Serge and Perk changed the culture of the Thunder. They went from KD and the nice guys, to a group of bruisers with a mean streak. From the Mike Dunleavy grab to the Air Congo in the dunk contest, it's sad but hard to give this trade a thumbs down.
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